Impact: Hospital Use and Deaths

Last Friday I shared The Conference Board’s estimates of 3 recovery scenarios.

While it is hard to predict which scenario is most likely since there are so many variables, UW’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation has a great website for hospital resource use/deaths from COVID-19 that might shed some light on this.

Here’s the link:

A couple observations:
– Most states peak by late April with their SD assumptions.
– The resource shortages are highly concentrated in a few states, in particular, New York.

What does this mean for us?
– We are entering the crucial 2 to 3 weeks to push through this. Sort of like mile 20 of a marathon, it’s painful but you can feel the end is coming and can make it.
– When you consider the scenarios from The Conference Board, this would suggest that Scenario 2 (Summer recovery) is more likely with a Q2 GDP nosedive but a roaring comeback starting in July.
– Get ready. Complete your crisis planning and then move to innovate in response to this disruption. Invest in the insights, strategic planning and preparation in order to avoid missing the starting gun.

Be safe and stay healthy. Then, get busy on the future.

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